The shots on target betting market

The whole market runs on one number: how many of a player’s or team’s shots were actually going in. Get the line-to-outcome mapping right and the rest follows. For the underlying definition of what makes a shot “on target” in the first place, see what is a shot on target. This page is about the lines built on top of it.

What each line means

The confusing part is that bookmakers write the same bet two different ways. Some list it as a threshold (“1+ shots on target”), some as a line you go over or under (“over 0.5 shots on target”). They settle identically.

A line like 0.5 or 1.5 has a decimal on the end for one reason: so the bet can never end level. You cannot have half a shot on target, so “over 0.5” resolves as soon as there is one, and “over 1.5” resolves as soon as there are two. The “+” notation does the same job with whole numbers: “1+” means one or more, “2+” means two or more.

So “1+ shot on target” means your selection wins if the player or team records at least one on-target effort. “1.5 shots on target” means they need at least two. “2.5 shots on target” means at least three. The half-number never changes which outcome you need, it just stops a push.

Team lines work the same way, they sit higher. A team over 3.5 shots on target needs four or more between all its players. Bookmakers also price a team shots on target handicap, giving one side a head start and settling on the difference between the two counts.

How the market settles

Every line settles on the official on-target count from the data provider, usually Opta or Stats Perform, the same feed behind most player markets. The test is the standard one: a shot counts as on target if it was going in and was scored, saved, or blocked on the line by the last defender. Opta’s public event definitions state that a shot on target includes all goals scored and shots saved by the goalkeeper, and that hitting the post or crossbar is a shot off target unless the ball then goes in.

The market inherits that definition wholesale. Sky Bet’s match stat markets page says outright that all standard definitions of shots and shots on target apply, and prices the location versions as a nominated player to have “a shot or shot on target from a given location, e.g. inside the box, outside the box.” A goal counts, though an own goal does not, because it belongs to the defender who scored it. A save counts. A block on the line by the last man counts. A miss, a block with cover behind it, and the woodwork all do not.

Rules differ by bookmaker, so if a settlement looks wrong, the sport rules page at your own book is the place to check.

Why the count differs from what you saw on TV

This is where bets get lost. The number a broadcaster flashes up and the number the provider settles on are compiled differently, and the gap is nearly always a blocked shot.

If a defender who still has cover behind them blocks a goal-bound shot, Opta logs it as a blocked shot, not a shot on target. Plenty of TV graphics count that same effort as on target, because it looked like it was heading in. So your player can be shown with “2 shots on target” on screen and settle on one. The other common gap is the woodwork: a shot that smacks the bar and stays out looks like it was on target to the naked eye, but it settles as off target.

Promos that change the lines

A few promotions bend the standard rules, and each one is tied to a specific market name, so the wording on your bet slip tells you whether it applies.

Woodwork counting. Paddy Power has run a promo where a shot off the post or bar counts as on target. Their own announcement says hitting the woodwork will count as a shot on target on the markets it covers. That is the exception. Everywhere else the woodwork stays off target.

Super Sub. If your player is subbed off before your shots bet lands, some books move the bet onto the player who replaces them, at the same odds and stake. It runs under different names (bet365’s Sub On Play On, William Hill’s Impact Sub, Sky Bet and Paddy Power’s Super Sub). Because it lifts your chance of winning, the odds on markets where it applies are usually a shade shorter.

Extra time. Player shots on target markets settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time, so extra time and shootouts are normally excluded. A bet365 promotion extends unsettled player bets into extra time when a knockout goes there, which matters at a World Cup or in the latter rounds of a cup.

For the full breakdown of these promos and how they interact with the on-target definition, the shot on target page goes deeper.

Reading a line before you back it

Because a half-number line just asks whether a player clears a whole-number count, the useful question is how often they have done it lately. A striker who has had at least one on target in nine of his last ten is a very different 1+ proposition to one who has managed it in four. That hit rate, split by home, away and opponent, is what turns a line from a guess into a read.

FootyMetrics tracks shots on target for every player and team across 115+ leagues, match by match, settled the way the market settles it. For long-range specialists there is a related but tighter market covered on shots outside the box, which strips out everything closer than 18 yards.