Learn football stats and betting,
the way we actually track them

How tackles are counted

A tackle only counts when the ball is won cleanly from an opponent in controlled possession. A foul-giving challenge is not logged as a tackle at all.

Fouls: committed vs won

Fouls committed goes to the player who gives it away, fouls won to the player fouled. Why the two totals never match, and how handball fouls settle.

How offsides are recorded

How an offside gets recorded as a stat, credited to the attacker penalised, whether a no-touch offside still counts, and how offsides props are settled.

Key passes vs assists

A key pass needs a shot, an assist needs a goal, and Opta counts them as separate stats, not one nested inside the other. Why that matters for props.

Chances created explained

Chances created is key passes plus assists, Opta's own total. Shots created and shot-creating actions are different terms. Here's the exact difference.

How goalkeeper saves settle

A goalkeeper save only counts against a shot on target. Blocks, woodwork hits and penalty saves, the rules verified, and how it shapes a saves prop.

Total passes props

A total passes prop settles on attempted passes, not just the ones that find a team-mate. A blocked pass or one that runs out of play still counts.

Interceptions, tackles, blocks

An interception happens before the receiver controls the ball, a tackle after. A block only covers shots; a blocked pass is a separate event.

Touches in the box

A touch is any contact with the ball, even a poor one. A touch in the box is judged by the ball's position, not the player's, when contact is made.

How corners are settled

A corner is awarded when the ball crosses the line off a defender. For betting, it only counts once it's actually taken, not just awarded.

Booking points explained

Booking points is a bookmaker scoring system, not a football rule. A yellow scores 10 points, a red 25, and a second yellow plus red scores 35.

Player to be carded

Player to be carded wins if the named player gets any card, yellow or red, in 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A straight red settles it, no yellow needed.

How goals are attributed

A shot on target stays the shooter's goal even with a slight deflection. A bigger deflection off a defender becomes an own goal instead. Here's the rule.

How assists are attributed

An assist bet settles on the data provider's number, not the TV graphic. How VAR overturns, deflections and rebounds affect assist bet settlement.

What is closing line value

CLV is the gap between the odds you bet at and the market's closing price. How to calculate it, and why beating the close beats a raw win/loss record.

What are fair odds

Fair odds strip the bookmaker's margin out of a price, showing the market's true, no-vig probability. The maths behind implied probability and devigging.

What is expected value

Expected value (EV) is the average result per bet if repeated forever at the same odds and true probability. The formula, a worked example, and the catch.

What is a value bet

A value bet is one where your true probability estimate is higher than the odds imply, giving it positive expected value. How models find them.

How prediction models work

A prediction model outputs a probability for each outcome, not a certain result. How Poisson, Elo and machine learning models work, and their limits.

Hit rate is not value

A 90% hit rate can still lose money at short odds. Why a high hit rate needs checking against the price, with a worked example, before it's a good bet.

What our edge figure means

Edge is the percentage gap between a price and a fairer estimate of it. How FootyMetrics' Props Edges figure works, and what it doesn't promise.

What is form rate

Recency weighting means recent matches count more than old ones. FootyMetrics' form rate and hit rate are flat, not recency-weighted. Here's what they do.

Market efficiency explained

A market is efficient when its price reflects all public information. Why the closing line is the benchmark, and why efficiency varies by market.

Line movement and steam

Line movement is any change to the odds after a market opens. Steam is a sudden, sharp move across several books at once. How to tell them apart.

Sharp vs soft money

Sharp money is informed action that moves lines. Soft money is the recreational volume that follows favourites. How the two shape a betting market.

Variance and sample size

Variance is why a real edge can still lose over 50 or 100 bets, and why a winning run can still mean nothing. Why sample size decides which one is true.

Yield, ROI and strike rate

Strike rate is how often you win. Yield is whether you made money. ROI usually means the same as yield. Worked examples showing why all three matter.

The super sub offer

If your player prop is subbed off before it settles, some bookmakers move the bet onto the substitute at the same odds. Every bookmaker's name for it.

Early payout: 2UP and 1UP

If your team goes two goals up, some bookmakers pay your bet as a winner there and then. What 2Up, 2 Goals Ahead and 2 Up You Win actually cover.

Profit boost tokens

A bet boost changes the odds. A profit boost changes only your net profit after the bet wins. The worked example, real caps and the exclusions to know.

Free bets: true value

Most free bets pay profit only, not the stake back. The true-value formula, worked at short and long odds, showing what a free bet is really worth.

What is a shot on target

A shot on target is any goal-bound effort scored, saved or blocked on the line by the last defender. What counts, and the promos that change it.

What is expected goals (xG)

Expected goals (xG) measures how likely a shot was to be scored, based on similar shots in the past. What feeds the model, and what FootyMetrics tracks.

What is expected assists (xA)

Expected assists (xA) is the pass-side mirror of xG, crediting a passer with the quality of the shot their pass created. What FootyMetrics tracks instead.

What is a big chance

A big chance is a situation a player should be expected to score from, judged by an analyst, not a formula. How it differs from a shot on target and xG.

What is possession

Possession is the share of a match each team spends in control of the ball. FootyMetrics explains the pass-count vs time methods and what we track.

What is PPDA

PPDA counts how many passes the opposition completes before a defensive action. Lower PPDA means more pressing, calculated in their defensive two-thirds.

What is non-penalty xG

Non-penalty xG (npxG) is xG with penalty-kick value stripped out. Why analysts use it, a worked example, and what FootyMetrics tracks instead.

Goals vs xG

Overperforming xG means scoring more than your shots suggest. Why short-run gaps are usually variance, and why some elite finishers sustain a real edge.

What is a clean sheet

A clean sheet means a team concedes nothing for 90 minutes. An opposition own goal doesn't break it, your own team's own goal does. Here's the exact rule.

What counts as an assist

An assist is the final touch from a teammate that leads to a goal. How deflections, rebounds and own goals are handled, and why providers can disagree.

What is a hat-trick

A hat-trick is three goals by one player in one match, not necessarily consecutive. What counts as a perfect hat-trick, and whether penalties count.

Offside explained

Offside is a two-part test: position, then offence. When a position becomes an offence, the throw-in and corner exemptions, and how VAR checks it.

The handball rule

Handball is an offence if it's deliberate, or the arm makes the body unnaturally bigger. A goal is disallowed if the ball hits the scorer's own arm first.

How VAR works

VAR only steps in for a clear and obvious error in four categories: goals, penalties, direct red cards and mistaken identity. The exact protocol explained.

What is added time

Added time makes up for stoppages like injuries, subs and VAR checks. The board shows a minimum, not a cap, and why it's grown longer since 2022.

The advantage rule

Advantage lets play continue after a foul when the fouled team benefits more from carrying on. IFAB's Law 5 rule on the pull-back, cards and VAR, verified.

What is DOGSO

DOGSO is denying an obvious goal-scoring opportunity. IFAB's four-factor test, and why the same foul is a red outside the box but a yellow inside it.

When a penalty is retaken

A penalty is retaken if the keeper stops it off the line, or if encroachment clearly affects the kick. A double touch is never a retake, it's a free kick.

Throw-in and foul throws

A throw-in needs both feet down, on or behind the line, ball delivered with both hands from over the head. Get it wrong and it is a foul throw.

Extra time and shootouts

Extra time is two 15-minute periods after a level knockout match. If still level, penalties decide it, but 90-minute markets settle before that.

The professional foul

Professional foul and tactical foul are not IFAB terms. They usually mean DOGSO, a red card, or the lesser stops-a-promising-attack offence, a yellow.

Substitution rules

Five substitutes is a competition option under IFAB Law 3, not a fixed number everywhere. The substitution windows, and the concussion substitute rule.

Red cards and bans

A straight red and a second yellow are different offences, and the ban that follows depends on the offence and the competition, not one fixed rule.

What is Asian handicap

Asian handicap gives one team a virtual head start to remove the draw. How whole, half and quarter lines settle, with worked examples.

Goalscorer markets

Own goals don't count for first, anytime or last goalscorer bets. An own-goal opener rolls first goalscorer to the next goal rather than voiding it.

Shots outside the box props

A shot outside the box is judged by where the ball is struck, not the player. Whether it needs to be on target changes how the market settles.

First to score and race-to

First team to score settles on who scores first, with no goal its own outcome if 0-0. Race-to markets work the same way, and own goals count for the team.

Win to nil explained

Win to nil means a team wins the match and concedes nothing. A goal against them, even an own goal, breaks the bet. Here's how it settles.

Why accounts get limited

Bookmakers restrict winning accounts to protect a model built on recreational losses. How gubbing works, stake factoring, and why it's legal in the UK.

Sharp vs soft bookmakers

A sharp bookmaker prices for pros and welcomes winners. A soft one prices for casual bettors and limits them. How to spot the difference.

What is a betting exchange

A betting exchange lets bettors bet against each other, not a bookmaker. How back and lay work, liability, and how exchange commission is actually charged.

KYC checks in betting

KYC is a legal requirement, not a bookmaker's choice. How UK identity, age and source of funds checks work, and what triggers them.

Safer gambling tools

How deposit limits, time-outs, GAMSTOP self-exclusion and reality checks actually work on UK betting sites, and the rules behind each one.

Palpable error voids

A palpable error is a bookmaker's term for an obvious pricing or settlement mistake. It can be voided or repriced, even after the bet has been paid out.

Void and dead heat rules

A void bet is cancelled and refunded in full. A dead heat splits the stake between tied selections. Here's when each applies to a football bet.

Bankroll management

Bankroll management means staking a small, consistent share of a betting pot each time. Unit sizing, staking plans, and why chasing losses fails.

How to track your bets

Track every bet's stake, odds, selection and result with a dedicated app or a spreadsheet. What to log, and how apps and spreadsheets compare.

How to read betting odds

Decimal, fractional and American odds are the same price written three ways. Worked examples, conversion formulas and a checked reference table.

Reading a player trend card

What the HIT, P90, AVG and RATE figures on a FootyMetrics player trend card mean, and how to read the match-by-match history strip.

How Props Edges works

Props Edges compares one bookmaker's price against the market average and flags the biggest gap. How the edge number works, and how to read it.

Using the Props Finder

The Player Props Finder lets you search a stat, line and hit rate across upcoming fixtures. What each filter does and how to build a shortlist.