Learn football stats and betting,
the way we actually track them

How tackles are counted

A tackle only counts when the ball is won cleanly from an opponent in controlled possession. A foul-giving challenge is not logged as a tackle at all.

Fouls: committed vs won

Fouls committed goes to the player who gives it away, fouls won to the player fouled. Why the two totals never match, and how handball fouls settle.

How offsides are recorded

How an offside gets recorded as a stat, credited to the attacker penalised, whether a no-touch offside still counts, and how offsides props are settled.

Key passes vs assists

A key pass needs a shot, an assist needs a goal, and they're counted as separate stats, not one nested inside the other. Why that matters for props.

Chances created explained

Chances created is key passes plus assists, a term from Opta's event definitions. Shots created and shot-creating actions are different terms. Here's the exact difference.

How goalkeeper saves settle

A goalkeeper save only counts against a shot on target. Blocks, woodwork hits and penalty saves, the rules verified, and how it shapes a saves prop.

Total passes props

A total passes prop settles on attempted passes, not just the ones that find a team-mate. A blocked pass or one that runs out of play still counts.

Interceptions, tackles, blocks

An interception happens before the receiver controls the ball, a tackle after. A block only covers shots; a blocked pass is a separate event.

Touches in the box

A touch is any contact with the ball, even a poor one. A touch in the box is judged by the ball's position, not the player's, when contact is made.

How corners are settled

A corner is awarded when the ball crosses the line off a defender. For betting, it only counts once it's actually taken, not just awarded.

Booking points explained

Booking points is a bookmaker scoring system, not a football rule. A yellow scores 10 points, a red 25, and a second yellow plus red scores 35.

Player to be carded

Player to be carded wins if the named player gets any card, yellow or red, in 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A straight red settles it, no yellow needed.

How goals are attributed

A shot on target stays the shooter's goal even with a slight deflection. A bigger deflection off a defender becomes an own goal instead. Here's the rule.

How assists are attributed

An assist bet settles on the data provider's number, not the TV graphic. How VAR overturns, deflections and rebounds affect assist bet settlement.

How clearances are counted

A clearance is any action that removes danger near your own goal, whether headed, hoofed clear or knocked off the line. Where it lands afterwards doesn't matter.

Blocks: shot vs cross

A shot block stops a goal-bound effort; a cross block clears a ball into the box before it arrives. A blocked open-play pass usually isn't logged as a block at all.

Dribbles and take-ons

A successful take-on means beating an opponent while keeping the ball. An attempt counts even when the defender wins it. How the stat is counted and settled.

Duels won explained

A duel is a 50-50 contest between two opposing players. How ground and aerial duels are counted, why every duel won has a loser, and where fouls fit in.

Aerial duels: what counts

An aerial duel is two opposing players challenging for the same ball in the air. How a win is judged, why free headers don't count, and why providers disagree.

Ball recoveries explained

A ball recovery is winning a loose ball in open play when neither team has control. How Opta defines it, why midfielders top the charts, and how bets settle.

What is closing line value

CLV is the gap between the odds you bet at and the market's closing price. How to calculate it, and why beating the close beats a raw win/loss record.

What are fair odds

Fair odds strip the bookmaker's margin out of a price, showing the market's true, no-vig probability. The maths behind implied probability and devigging.

What is expected value

Expected value (EV) is the average result per bet if repeated forever at the same odds and true probability. The formula, a worked example, and the catch.

What is a value bet

A value bet is one where your true probability estimate is higher than the odds imply, giving it positive expected value. How models find them.

How prediction models work

A prediction model outputs a probability for each outcome, not a certain result. How Poisson, Elo and machine learning models work, and their limits.

Hit rate is not value

A 90% hit rate can still lose money at short odds. Why a high hit rate needs checking against the price, with a worked example, before it's a good bet.

What our edge figure means

Edge is the percentage gap between a price and a fairer estimate of it. How FootyMetrics' Props Edges figure works, and what it doesn't promise.

What is form rate

Recency weighting means recent matches count more than old ones. FootyMetrics' form rate and hit rate are flat, not recency-weighted. Here's what they do.

Market efficiency explained

A market is efficient when its price reflects all public information. Why the closing line is the benchmark, and why efficiency varies by market.

Line movement and steam

Line movement is any change to the odds after a market opens. Steam is a sudden, sharp move across several books at once. How to tell them apart.

Sharp vs soft money

Sharp money is informed action that moves lines. Soft money is the recreational volume that follows favourites. How the two shape a betting market.

Variance and sample size

Variance is why a real edge can still lose over 50 or 100 bets, and why a winning run can still mean nothing. Why sample size decides which one is true.

Yield, ROI and strike rate

Strike rate is how often you win. Yield is whether you made money. ROI usually means the same as yield. Worked examples showing why all three matter.

What is the overround

The overround is the amount a bookmaker's odds sum to over 100% once converted to implied probability. That excess is the bookmaker's built-in margin.

How to devig odds

How to devig odds: convert each price to implied probability, divide by the total, then convert back to fair odds. A full worked example with real numbers.

Turning odds into implied probability

Implied probability is the chance a bookmaker's price suggests. The exact formulas to convert decimal, fractional and American odds, worked through.

The Poisson goals model

Poisson turns a team's expected goals into the chance of 0, 1, 2, 3+ goals, then into over/under and correct-score prices. A worked example, the formula and where it breaks.

Why per 90 matters

Per 90 rescales a player's output to a full match so a starter and a sub compare fairly. Why a high per-90 from few minutes is a trap, and how props price minutes.

The super sub offer

If your player prop is subbed off before it settles, some bookmakers move the bet onto the substitute at the same odds. Every bookmaker's name for it.

Early payout: 2UP and 1UP

If your team goes two goals up, some bookmakers pay your bet as a winner there and then. What 2Up, 2 Goals Ahead and 2 Up You Win actually cover.

Profit boost tokens

A bet boost changes the odds. A profit boost changes only your net profit after the bet wins. The worked example, real caps and the exclusions to know.

Free bets: true value

Most free bets pay profit only, not the stake back. The true-value formula, worked at short and long odds, showing what a free bet is really worth.

Are price boosts good value?

A price boost is only good value if it clears the fair, no-vig price for that outcome. How to check a boost against fair odds, max stakes and marketing hooks.

Acca insurance explained

Acca insurance refunds your stake if exactly one leg of a qualifying accumulator loses, almost always as a free bet worth less than cash. The rules and real value.

Acca boosts explained

An acca boost adds a rising percentage to your accumulator winnings as legs stack up. How the ladder works, the small print, and why it rarely beats the margin.

Bet builders and correlation

A bet builder is not the single odds multiplied together. Correlated legs make the price shorter, and the margin is bigger. How same game multi pricing works.

Money-back specials

How money-back specials work: the 0-0 bore draw refund, first goalscorer money back and own-goal refunds, cash vs free bet, and how a refund changes your price.

In-play prop suspensions

In-play player prop markets freeze the moment a shot, goal, VAR check, card or sub could move the price, then reopen at a new line once the bookmaker catches up.

What is a shot on target

A shot on target is any goal-bound effort scored, saved or blocked on the line by the last defender. What counts, and the promos that change it.

What is expected goals (xG)

Expected goals (xG) measures how likely a shot was to be scored, based on similar shots in the past. How the model works, and how to read xG on FootyMetrics.

What is expected assists (xA)

Expected assists (xA) is the pass-side mirror of xG, crediting a passer with the quality of the shot their pass created. How it works, and how to read xA on FootyMetrics.

What is a big chance

A big chance is a situation a player should be expected to score from, judged by an analyst, not a formula. How it differs from a shot on target and xG.

What is possession

Possession is the share of a match each team spends in control of the ball. FootyMetrics explains the pass-count vs time methods and what we track.

What is PPDA

PPDA counts how many passes the opposition completes before a defensive action. Lower PPDA means more pressing, calculated in their defensive two-thirds.

What is non-penalty xG

Non-penalty xG (npxG) is xG with penalty-kick value stripped out. Why analysts use it, a worked example, and how to approximate it from the xG FootyMetrics tracks.

Goals vs xG

Overperforming xG means scoring more than your shots suggest. Why short-run gaps are usually variance, and why some elite finishers sustain a real edge.

What is a clean sheet

A clean sheet means a team concedes nothing for 90 minutes. An opposition own goal doesn't break it, your own team's own goal does. Here's the exact rule.

What counts as an assist

An assist is the final touch from a teammate that leads to a goal. How deflections, rebounds and own goals are handled, and why providers can disagree.

What is a hat-trick

A hat-trick is three goals by one player in one match, not necessarily consecutive. What counts as a perfect hat-trick, and whether penalties count.

Pass completion explained

A high pass completion percentage often just means safe, low-risk passing, not a good performance. Why position skews the number, and how to read it right.

Defensive actions

Defensive actions add tackles, interceptions and blocks into one total, sometimes with clearances. The recipe differs by provider and decides how props settle.

Progressive passes and carries

A progressive pass or carry moves the ball meaningfully closer to the opponent's goal. Each data provider sets its own distance threshold, so counts differ by site.

Shot-creating actions (SCA)

Shot-creating actions credit the last two attacking moves before a shot: passes, take-ons, fouls won and more. How SCA works, GCA, and how it differs from key passes.

xGChain and xGBuildup

xGChain credits every player in a possession that ends in a shot with that shot's xG. xGBuildup strips out the shooter and assister to reward the deep build-up.

What is field tilt

Field tilt is a team's share of touches in the attacking third. Why it beats raw possession as a dominance signal, with a worked 70/30 example.

Offside explained

Offside is a two-part test: position, then offence. When a position becomes an offence, the throw-in and corner exemptions, and how VAR checks it.

The handball rule

Handball is an offence if it's deliberate, or the arm makes the body unnaturally bigger. A goal is disallowed if the ball hits the scorer's own arm first.

How VAR works

VAR only steps in for a clear and obvious error in four categories: goals, penalties, direct red cards and mistaken identity. The exact protocol explained.

What is added time

Added time makes up for stoppages like injuries, subs and VAR checks. The board shows a minimum, not a cap, and why it's grown longer since 2022.

The advantage rule

Advantage lets play continue after a foul when the fouled team benefits more from carrying on. IFAB's Law 5 rule on the pull-back, cards and VAR, verified.

What is DOGSO

DOGSO is denying an obvious goal-scoring opportunity. IFAB's four-factor test, and why the same foul is a red outside the box but a yellow inside it.

When a penalty is retaken

A penalty is retaken if the keeper stops it off the line, or if encroachment clearly affects the kick. A double touch is never a retake, it's a free kick.

Throw-in and foul throws

A throw-in needs both feet down, on or behind the line, ball delivered with both hands from over the head. Get it wrong and it is a foul throw.

Extra time and shootouts

Extra time is two 15-minute periods after a level knockout match. If still level, penalties decide it, but 90-minute markets settle before that.

The professional foul

Professional foul and tactical foul are not IFAB terms. They usually mean DOGSO, a red card, or the lesser stops-a-promising-attack offence, a yellow.

Substitution rules

Five substitutes is a competition option under IFAB Law 3, not a fixed number everywhere. The substitution windows, and the concussion substitute rule.

Red cards and bans

A straight red and a second yellow are different offences, and the ban that follows depends on the offence and the competition, not one fixed rule.

The back-pass rule

A goalkeeper cannot handle a ball a team-mate deliberately kicked to them. Why that is an indirect free kick, what counts as deliberate, and the headed-back exception.

What is a drop ball

A drop ball restarts play after the referee stops the game without a foul. The uncontested rule, the 4 metre distance, the goalkeeper exception, and the 2019 change.

Corner kick vs goal kick

When the ball crosses the goal line without a goal, the last touch decides the restart. Off a defender it is a corner, off an attacker it is a goal kick.

What is Asian handicap

Asian handicap gives one team a virtual head start to remove the draw. How whole, half and quarter lines settle, with worked examples.

Goalscorer markets

Own goals don't count for first, anytime or last goalscorer bets. An own-goal opener rolls first goalscorer to the next goal rather than voiding it.

Shots outside the box props

A shot outside the box is judged by where the ball is struck, not the player. Whether it needs to be on target changes how the market settles.

First to score and race-to

First team to score settles on who scores first, with no goal its own outcome if 0-0. Race-to markets work the same way, and own goals count for the team.

Win to nil explained

Win to nil means a team wins the match and concedes nothing. A goal against them, even an own goal, breaks the bet. Here's how it settles.

Shots on target market

What 1+, over 0.5, over 1.5 and over 2.5 shots on target mean, how the market settles on the official count, and why it differs from what you saw on TV.

Half markets

How first half, second half and half-time/full-time markets settle. Each half market counts one half only, and the second half usually excludes extra time.

Scorecast and wincast

A scorecast pairs a goalscorer with the correct score, a wincast pairs one with the match result. Both are single correlated bets, and own goals never count.

Why accounts get limited

Bookmakers restrict winning accounts to protect a model built on recreational losses. How gubbing works, stake factoring, and why it's legal in the UK.

Sharp vs soft bookmakers

A sharp bookmaker prices for pros and welcomes winners. A soft one prices for casual bettors and limits them. How to spot the difference.

What is a betting exchange

A betting exchange lets bettors bet against each other, not a bookmaker. How back and lay work, liability, and how exchange commission is actually charged.

KYC checks in betting

KYC is a legal requirement, not a bookmaker's choice. How UK identity, age and source of funds checks work, and what triggers them.

Safer gambling tools

How deposit limits, time-outs, GAMSTOP self-exclusion and reality checks actually work on UK betting sites, and the rules behind each one.

Palpable error voids

A palpable error is a bookmaker's term for an obvious pricing or settlement mistake. It can be voided or repriced, even after the bet has been paid out.

Void and dead heat rules

A void bet is cancelled and refunded in full. A dead heat splits the stake between tied selections. Here's when each applies to a football bet.

Exchange or bookmaker

An exchange like Betfair rarely limits winners, but commission and thin player-prop liquidity can cost you. A bookmaker offers boosts but risks limiting you.

Stake factoring explained

A stake factor is a multiplier a bookmaker puts on your account to scale your maximum stake. How it works, what cuts it, and whether it recovers.

Account restrictions

Bookmakers restrict accounts a layer at a time: offers first, then stakes, then markets, rarely closure. What triggers each tier and how it changes your betting.

Bankroll management

Bankroll management means staking a small, consistent share of a betting pot each time. Unit sizing, staking plans, and why chasing losses fails.

How to track your bets

Track every bet's stake, odds, selection and result with a dedicated app or a spreadsheet. What to log, and how apps and spreadsheets compare.

How to read betting odds

Decimal, fractional and American odds are the same price written three ways. Worked examples, conversion formulas and a checked reference table.

Staking plans compared

Flat staking bets a fixed amount, percentage staking scales with your bankroll, and Kelly sizes the bet to your edge. The same £1,000 bankroll, staked three ways, with worked numbers.

A betting log that works

The nine fields a useful bet log needs: date, event, market, selection, stake, odds taken, closing odds, result and running P/L, and why closing odds is the one people skip.

Why chasing losses fails

Chasing losses means raising your stake to win back what you dropped. Why a losing run plus growing stakes ruins a bankroll, even with a real edge.

Unit sizing

A unit is a fixed slice of your bankroll, commonly 1% to 2%, used as your standard stake. How to set one, and how a 1 to 3 unit confidence scale works.

Reading a player trend card

What the HIT, P90, AVG and RATE figures on a FootyMetrics player trend card mean, and how to read the match-by-match history strip.

How Props Edges works

Props Edges compares one bookmaker's price against the market average and flags the biggest gap. How the edge number works, and how to read it.

Using the Props Finder

The Player Props Finder lets you search a stat, line and hit rate across upcoming fixtures. What each filter does and how to build a shortlist.

Predicted vs confirmed lineups

A predicted lineup is a guess made hours out; a confirmed one comes from the club, usually about an hour before kickoff. Here's where prop betting risk sits between the two.

Fair-odds player lines

A fair-odds player line is the no-vig price for a who-records-more head to head, built from two players' real records. How Player Matchups works it out.