How Props Edges finds mispriced markets

We'll walk through exactly what the tool shows, what the edge number does and does not tell you, and how to read the real table without mistaking a pricing signal for a prediction.

What Props Edges actually shows

Props Edges is a live table of player prop bets: shots, shots on target, tackles, fouls committed, fouls drawn, cards, goals, assists, goal involvements and goalkeeper saves, each offered as an Over or Under on a line the bookmaker sets. For every prop, FootyMetrics fetches the current odds from all supported bookmakers, works out the average price across them, and checks each individual book's price against that average. The book that sits furthest from the average is the edge shown on the row, expressed as a percentage. A row needs at least two bookmakers pricing the same prop and selection for the average, and therefore the edge, to be shown at all.

The tool's own page states this directly: for every player prop, it pulls live odds from every supported bookmaker, computes the market average, and compares each book to that average, with the biggest disagreement between a single book and the market shown as the edge. There is no model, no projection and no machine learning probability involved, just market edge detection.

So the comparison is one bookmaker against the rest of the market, not one bookmaker against a FootyMetrics model price. That is a more limited claim than a projection-based tool would make, and it is the whole basis for how the edge number should be read.

What an edge means on this tool

The edge number is a percentage gap between one bookmaker's odds and the market average for that same prop and selection. A +8% edge means that bookmaker is paying 8% more than the average of the other books on the same bet. The sign can go either way: a positive edge means a book is priced generously against the field, a negative edge means it is priced short.

This is a different claim from a value bet against a model. A value bet compares bookmaker odds against a model's estimated probability of an outcome. A props edge compares one bookmaker's odds against the average of other bookmakers on the same prop. Props Edges only uses the second method.

How a user is meant to use it

The tool is built as a scanner, not a settlement ledger. It is meant for spotting props where one bookmaker steps out of line with the rest, with a hit rate filter layered on top to find the names that have actually been consistent. In practice that means:

• Use the edge percentage to find prices worth a second look, not as a signal to bet blindly.
• Check the hit rate circle on each row, based on the player's last 10 starts in the past 12 months, to see whether they have actually been clearing that exact line and selection often enough to make the price interesting.
• Check whether the bookmaker showing the edge has a substitution protection feature before assuming the gap is a pure mispricing.
• Remember that odds move. Prices can shift in the seconds between seeing a row here and opening the bookmaker's bet slip.

Why an edge here still needs the same caveats

An edge shown on this page is a pricing signal, nothing more. It carries the same caveats as any discussion of betting edge and expected value: a gap in the market does not by itself say whether a bet will win, and even a genuine pricing edge only shows up as profit over a large number of repeats, not on any single bet. See what is expected value for the formula and the honest limits of EV. The same logic around sample size and variance applies here: a positive edge on one prop tells you nothing certain about the outcome of that one prop.

A short walkthrough of the real table

Reading a row left to right: the player's name and position (with an inactive or no-recent-starts flag where relevant), the fixture and kickoff time, the market and line (for example "Shots on target, Over 1.5"), a hit rate circle showing how often the player has cleared that exact line and selection in their last 10 starts over the past 12 months, the average odds across the selected bookmakers, each bookmaker's own price, and the edge percentage on the right. A chart icon on each row opens a stats modal with the player's recent match history for that market. Filters above the table narrow by market, minimum edge (quick options for 2%+, 5%+ and 10%+), position, minimum hit rate, bookmaker, odds range and date range.