What is non-penalty xG (npxG)?
Non-penalty expected goals, npxG, is a player's or team's total xG with penalty-kick xG stripped out. It's the number analysts reach for when the question is open-play chance quality, not overall xG.
Team FootyMetrics
Updated Jul 2026 ยท 4 min read
- npxG is xG minus the xG value of any penalties taken. Nothing else about the calculation changes.
- Penalties are stripped out because they're converted at a high, fairly constant rate that has little to do with open-play chance creation.
- A big run of converted penalties can make a striker's overall xG look better than their open-play craft actually justifies. npxG is the number to check instead.
- FootyMetrics doesn't store or display npxG. We track shots on target and big chances instead.
This page is the short, focused companion to our full expected goals (xG) explainer. Read that first if you want the full model. Here's just the non-penalty part.
What is non-penalty xG (npxG)?
Non-penalty xG is a player's or team's total expected goals with the xG value of any penalty kicks taken out. Every other shot, open play, corners, free kicks struck at goal, still counts exactly as it does in ordinary xG. Only the penalty portion is removed.
As our xG explainer covers, Opta doesn't run its full shot model on penalties. Because almost every penalty is struck from the same spot under the same conditions, it gives them a constant value reflecting their historical conversion rate, 0.79 xG, according to Opta Analyst. npxG takes that fixed 0.79 back out for every penalty a player or team has taken, leaving only the shots that came from actual attacking play.
A worked example. Say a striker takes 10 shots across a run of matches. 3 of those are penalties, all scored, worth around 0.79 xG each, roughly 2.4 xG combined. The other 7 are open-play efforts worth 9 xG combined, and 7 of those go in too. Their total xG for the run is about 11.4. Their npxG is about 9. The npxG number is the one that actually says something about their shot selection and finishing from open play. The full xG number is inflated by three shots that were never really in much doubt.
Why penalties are stripped out
A penalty is a near-guaranteed, high-probability shot awarded by a referee. It isn't a chance a player or team carved out through build-up play, so it doesn't say much about how good their open-play attacking is. A striker or team that wins and converts several penalties in a stretch can end up looking sharper in raw xG terms than their open-play craft actually justifies. npxG is the fix: it isolates the shots that came from genuine attacking play, rather than a decision made by the referee.
Same reasoning as our xG page
What npxG doesn't touch
npxG is a shot-quality metric, not a goals-scored metric. The only thing it ever strips out is the xG value of penalty shots. It doesn't touch:
- Goals actually scored, including own goals. An own goal conceded comes from a defensive situation, not a shot a team's own player took, so it was never part of that team's xG or npxG figure in the first place.
- Any other shot type. Headers, direct free kicks, corners and rebounds all stay in npxG exactly as they sit in ordinary xG. Only penalties are removed.
It's worth being precise here, because it's an easy pair to mix up: npxG is about the quality of shots a team or player took, not about how many goals ended up on the scoreboard.
What FootyMetrics tracks instead
FootyMetrics doesn't calculate or display npxG, or xG. If the goal is judging open-play chance quality without penalties skewing the picture, the closest read on our site is shots on target and big chances, both of which are separate from penalty conversion by nature of what they measure.
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For the full model behind xG itself, including what feeds it and how goals compare to xG over a run of matches, see the full expected goals (xG) explainer. For the definitions of the two stats we do track instead, see what is a shot on target and what is a big chance.
Non-penalty xG (npxG) FAQs
What is non-penalty xG (npxG)?
A player's or team's total expected goals (xG) with the xG value of any penalty kicks removed. Every other shot, from open play, corners and free kicks, still counts.
Why do analysts use npxG instead of xG?
A penalty is scored at a high, fairly constant rate that has little to do with how well a team or player creates chances from open play. npxG strips that out so the number reflects chances actually created from play, rather than a run of converted spot kicks.
Does npxG exclude own goals?
No, not directly, because npxG only ever measures shots a team's own player took. An own goal isn't a shot by that team's player, so it was never part of their xG or npxG figure to begin with.
Does FootyMetrics show npxG?
No, FootyMetrics does not track or display npxG or xG. We track shots on target and big chances for every player and team across 115+ leagues instead.