Yield vs ROI vs strike rate: the three numbers people mix up
Strike rate is the percentage of bets that win. Yield is the percentage of your total stakes returned as profit. ROI, strictly, is profit against your starting bankroll rather than total stakes, though most bettors use ROI and yield to mean the same thing when betting level stakes. None of the three tells you the full story on its own.
Team FootyMetrics
Updated Jul 2026 ยท 7 min read
- Strike rate is (winning bets / total bets) x 100. It says nothing about the odds taken, so a high strike rate can still lose money.
- Yield is (total profit / total staked) x 100, usually worked out over level stakes. It is the number that actually tells you whether the betting made money.
- ROI and yield are used interchangeably by most bettors, but some sources draw a real distinction: yield divides by total staked, ROI strictly divides by starting bankroll.
- Any of these numbers can mislead over a small sample. Read them against how many bets they are built on.
Three numbers get thrown around in the same breath whenever someone talks about their betting record, and they answer three different questions. Here is what each one actually measures, a worked example for the two that involve money, and where each one can quietly mislead you.
Why strike rate alone is misleading
Strike rate is the simplest of the three: the percentage of bets that won.
Strike rate = (winning bets / total bets) x 100
Fifty bets, twenty winners, strike rate is 40%. It is an easy number to reach for because it needs no odds and no stakes, just a tally of wins and losses. That is also exactly why it is misleading on its own: it says nothing about the price taken on those wins.
Here is the trap stated plainly: a bettor can win 90% of their bets and still lose money, if the odds are short enough. Back a string of bets at odds of 1.10 and the breakeven strike rate is roughly 90.9% (1 divided by 1.10). Win 90% of the time at that price and the maths runs the other way.
Worked example: 100 bets at odds of 1.10, level stakes of 1 unit, 90 winners.
- Total staked: 100 x 1 = 100 units.
- Profit per winning bet: 1 x (1.10 - 1) = 0.10 units.
- Total profit from winners: 90 x 0.10 = 9 units.
- Total loss from losers: 10 x 1 = 10 units.
- Net result: 9 - 10 = -1 unit.
A 90% strike rate, and the bettor is down 1 unit on 100 staked, a yield of -1%. Nothing is wrong with the arithmetic and nothing is unlucky about the run. The odds were simply too short to cover the losses. A high hit rate is not the same thing as good value, a point covered more fully in what is expected value, though this page is about telling the three headline numbers apart rather than the full case for hunting value.
Strike rate and odds move together
Yield: the number that reflects profit
Yield is total profit expressed as a percentage of everything staked to get there, usually calculated over level (flat) stakes so one big bet does not distort the picture.
Yield = (total profit / total staked) x 100
Worked example: 100 bets, level stakes of 1 unit, 40 winners at average odds of 3.00.
- Total staked: 100 x 1 = 100 units.
- Amount returned per winning bet: 1 x 3.00 = 3 units (stake back plus profit).
- Total returned from 40 winners: 40 x 3 = 120 units.
- Total profit: 120 - 100 = 20 units.
- Yield: (20 / 100) x 100 = 20%.
Checked the other way, bet by bet: 40 winners profit 2 units each (odds of 3.00 minus the 1 unit stake), which is 80 units. 60 losers lose 1 unit each, which is -60 units. Net is 80 minus 60, 20 units. Same answer, a 20% yield.
That is a strong yield by normal betting standards. A yield in the 4 to 10% range across a full season is usually considered good going for a disciplined bettor working level stakes, and sustaining much more than that over a large sample is rare. Compare that with the strike rate example above: a 40% strike rate produced a healthy profit here because the average odds were long enough, while a 90% strike rate lost money at odds of 1.10. Strike rate and yield answer two different questions, and only yield answers whether the betting actually made money.
ROI: same idea, a different bottom line
"ROI" gets used two ways in betting, and it is worth being precise about which one you mean.
Most bettors use "ROI" and "yield" interchangeably to describe profit as a percentage of total stakes, especially when betting to level stakes over a defined period. In that everyday usage, ROI and yield are the same calculation.
Some dedicated betting-tracking sources draw a stricter line: yield always divides profit by total money staked, while ROI, strictly defined, divides profit by your starting bankroll, not by turnover. Under that stricter definition the two numbers can differ quite a bit. Someone staking small, level amounts from a modest bankroll can turn that bankroll over many times across a season, so total staked ends up far larger than the starting bank, and ROI against the smaller starting figure comes out higher than yield against the larger turnover figure. Yield tends to stay fairly stable bet to bet because it is always measured against the stake actually risked, while ROI against a starting bankroll can drift as the bankroll itself grows or shrinks.
FootyMetrics uses "yield" for exactly this reason: it stays comparable regardless of bankroll size or how many times it has been reinvested.
When you see "ROI" used on a betting site or in a tipster's results, check which definition they mean before comparing it with anyone else's number, including your own.
Why sample size still matters
None of these numbers means much on a handful of bets. A 90% strike rate over 10 bets is 9 wins, and a single lost bet can move it several points. A 20% yield over 20 bets can be one big-priced winner away from a small loss.
Yield and ROI are especially sensitive to a small number of long-priced results, because one winner at big odds can carry a whole sample. Strike rate is steadier bet to bet but tells you nothing about whether the odds justified the stakes. The practical rule most serious bettors use is to look at yield and strike rate together, over as many bets as possible, and to treat anything under a few hundred bets as a small sample that could still move a long way in either direction before it settles down. The full case for why is in variance and sample size.
The three side by side
- Strike rate: how often you're right.
- Yield: whether the betting made money, and by how much per unit staked.
- ROI (used loosely): usually the same thing as yield, profit against turnover.
- Strike rate hides whether the odds you took were worth having.
- Yield hides how much of the profit came from a small number of long-priced results.
- ROI, used strictly against starting bankroll, hides the fact that a small bankroll turned over many times can flatter the number.
Read all three together, over a real sample size, and you get a much fuller picture than any one of them gives you alone.
Yield, ROI and strike rate FAQs
What is the difference between yield and ROI in betting?
Most bettors use the two terms interchangeably to mean profit as a percentage of total stakes. Some sources draw a stricter distinction: yield always divides profit by total money staked, while ROI, strictly defined, divides profit by starting bankroll, which can produce a different number.
Can you have a high strike rate and still lose money betting?
Yes. Strike rate only counts how often bets win, not the odds taken. Backing short-priced favourites can produce a high strike rate while still losing money if the odds are too low to cover the losing bets.
What counts as a good yield in betting?
A yield in roughly the 4 to 10% range over a full season, calculated on level stakes, is usually considered a solid result for a disciplined bettor. Consistently higher than that over a large sample is rare.
How many bets do you need before yield or strike rate means anything?
There is no single cutoff, but a few dozen bets tells you very little because one or two results can swing the numbers a long way. Serious bettors usually wait for at least a few hundred bets before treating yield or strike rate as a reliable read on their process.
Does a positive yield guarantee future profit?
No. Yield describes what happened over the bets already placed. It is a useful signal, especially over a large sample, but it does not guarantee the same rate of profit continues.