Odds Outliers
How it worksSpot props where one bookmaker's odds are significantly higher than every other bookmaker's.
New here? Read the full Odds Outliers guide
How to read the table, filter to the odds gaps worth backing, and take the best odds.
How Odds Outliers works
Odds Outliers spots props where one bookmaker has odds dramatically out of line with the rest. For every player prop, we pull the live odds from every supported bookmaker, compute the market average, and compare each book to that average. The biggest disagreement between a single book and the market is shown as the edge. Every row requires at least two bookmakers with odds on the same selection so the average stays meaningful. The outlier comes from the odds alone, with no model involved. Our model's probability is shown in its own column as a second check.
Why bookmakers set different odds for the same prop
Three reasons, and they matter when you interpret an edge.
Different internal numbers. Bookmakers trade the same market independently. They do not share probabilities. Sharper books move faster, while softer books sit on stale lines for longer.
Book balance. A bookmaker already heavy on one side of a prop will shorten the opposite side to attract liability in the other direction. That distorts the odds away from the true probability.
Embedded promotions. Several books build player prop features into their odds that other books do not. Bet365's "Sub On Play On" and Paddy Power, Sky Bet and ComeOn's "Super Sub" transfer your bet to the replacement player if your starter is substituted off, at the same odds. Books offering this feature structurally set tighter odds on props than books that do not, because the bet is more likely to hit. An edge against a book with Sub On Play On may not be a real edge.
How to read an edge, and what it does not promise
A +8% edge means one bookmaker's odds are 8% higher than the market average. That is an odds signal, not a prediction. Blindly betting every positive edge row on this page does not guarantee long term profit. Before betting an edge, check the player's recent stats by opening any row, confirm the edge bookmaker does not include a substitution promotion that the cheaper books lack, and consider whether a line move is already in progress. Player props odds are highly volatile. They move in minutes when lineup news drops, when sharp money hits, or when a book re rates a player.
How fresh are the odds?
We pull fresh odds from every bookmaker each minute. The board you are reading is rebuilt on a schedule from those odds and carries a stamp at the top saying how old it is. Even at that cadence props can move between our fetch and your click, especially close to kickoff. The odds on the bookmaker site are always the source of truth. Treat this page as a scanner, not a settlement ledger.
Which markets and lines are covered?
Twelve markets are supported: goals, assists, goal involvements, shots, shots on target, shots on target from outside the box, headed shots on target, tackles, fouls committed, fouls drawn, cards and goalkeeper saves. Lines run from 0.5 up to 9.5 depending on the market. Cards cap at 1.5, while shots and shots on target go to 6.5. Only unstarted fixtures within the next 14 days are included.
How does the hit rate filter work?
Every row carries a hit rate based on the player's recent history at that exact line and selection. Set a minimum hit rate in the filters to keep only props where the player has cleared the threshold often enough to make the edge worth a second look. A high odds edge combined with a high hit rate is the strongest combination this tool surfaces.
Frequently asked questions
What is a player prop bet?
A player prop is a bet on an individual player's performance rather than the match result. Common props include shots, shots on target, tackles, fouls, cards, goals, assists and saves. Each is offered as an Over or Under on a line set by the bookmaker.
What is an odds outlier?
An edge is the percentage gap between one bookmaker's odds on a player prop and the average odds across all other bookmakers covering the same prop. A +8% edge means one book's odds are 8% higher than the market average. The bigger the gap, the more one book is out of line with the rest.
What is the difference between an odds outlier and a value bet?
A value bet compares bookmaker odds against a model's estimated probability of an outcome. An odds outlier compares one bookmaker's odds against the average of other bookmakers on the same prop. The first is model versus market. The second is market versus market. Odds Outliers uses the second method only.
Why can the same prop have very different odds across bookmakers?
Bookmakers trade independently. They use different source data, different risk appetites and different promotions. A book heavy on one side will adjust to balance liability. Some books embed substitution protection such as Sub On Play On or Super Sub, which tightens their odds compared to books without that feature. All of this produces genuine odds gaps, but not all gaps are real mispriced odds.
Does a big edge guarantee long term profit?
No. A big edge is a signal to investigate, not a guarantee. You still need bankroll discipline, realistic expectations on how often you can execute before the odds move, and an understanding of the promo features on the edge bookmaker. Bet responsibly and only with money you can afford to lose.
How often do you update the odds?
We pull fresh odds from every bookmaker each minute. The board itself is rebuilt on a schedule and stamps how old it is at the top of the page, so you always know what you are looking at. Player props still move within seconds on lineup news, so check the odds on the bookmaker site before you bet.
Why does the edge I saw disappear when I click through to the bookmaker?
Because lines move. If other bettors, sharp money or the bookmaker's own risk model shift the odds between our fetch and your click, the edge you saw may be smaller or gone by the time you reach the bet slip.
What do inactive and non-starter mean on a player?
Inactive means the player got no minutes in any of their team's last 3 matches. Non-starter means they did not start any of those 3, though they may have come off the bench. Both are warnings that the player may not play, so the prop may not be bettable at the offered odds.