Player matchups

Fair odds here are the odds the hit rate implies (1 ÷ hit rate), from the players' own games, not our model.

We take each player's games from the period and filters you set, then set every one of player one's games against every one of player two's and count how often each ends up with more. That share is the hit rate, and 1 ÷ it is the fair odds for player one, the draw, or player two.

The comparison is adjusted for minutes. A player who is often subbed off, or comes on from the bench, plays fewer minutes, so each game is scaled to a shared minutes baseline before it is compared. Nothing else goes in: not the opponent, not the league.

Two switches shape the sample. Started only keeps the games the player started, which is how these markets are settled. Super sub adds the stats of whoever came on for him, for the full output from that spot; keep it off when you check odds for a real bet, since bookmakers settle on the named player.

The line on the charts sets each player's hit rate: how many of his games went over it. It does not change the fair odds.

A player matchup is a head to head bet on which of two players records more of a single stat in a match: shots, shots on target, fouls, goals, assists, tackles or cards. Betfair lists them as Matchups, Kambi bookmakers such as BetMGM call the market Player v Player, and Altenar bookmakers run it as Player H2H.

Pick two players and a stat, set the games to base it on (the last 20, a season, home or away only), and the tool gives the fair odds for player one, the draw, or player two. For full season totals side by side, use Compare players; for who faces whom on the pitch in a match, use Player duels.