World Cup 2026 Group Stage Predictions
Group-by-group World Cup 2026 predictions based on how many goals each squad's players actually scored in their domestic leagues this season.
Founder, FootyMetrics
The 2026 World Cup group stage runs from 11 June to 28 June, and the cleanest way to preview it is to ask a simple question: how many goals can each squad actually score? Below, every nation is ranked by the league goals its called-up players managed in their own domestic top-flight this season, then grouped into the 12 first-round groups.
England carry the most firepower of any squad by a clear distance. The surprise of the draw is Czech Republic, whose squad outscored Spain, Germany and Argentina at club level this season and landed in the hardest group on paper.
How these predictions were made
This is a form measure, not a crystal ball, and it is worth being clear about what is behind the numbers. For every player called up, we took the goals they scored in their club's domestic league this season and added up each squad's total, using FootyMetrics data across 115+ leagues. For European and most major leagues that is the 2025/2026 season just finished. For calendar-year leagues still in progress, such as Major League Soccer and the Scandinavian top flights, it is the part-played 2026 season, so squads built around those leagues are slightly understated.
Cup goals, continental goals and international goals are deliberately excluded, so this is a clean club-league comparison. It measures attacking form, nothing else. It does not know that Argentina are world champions or that Spain and France have far deeper tournament pedigree than a goal count suggests. Read it as one honest input, not the whole story.
The 12 groups, ranked by squad scoring form
| Group | Squad (domestic league goals this season) | Likely top two |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | England 158, Croatia 116, Ghana 72, Panama 26 | England, Croatia |
| 2 | Portugal 135, Colombia 83, Congo DR 44, Uzbekistan 31 | Portugal, Colombia |
| 3 | France 129, Norway 87, Senegal 75, Iraq 22 | France, Norway |
| 4 | Brazil 121, Scotland 85, Morocco 84, Haiti 18 | Brazil, Morocco |
| 5 | Czech Republic 121, Mexico 104, Korea Republic 50, South Africa 6 | Czech Republic, Mexico |
| 6 | Germany 113, Côte d'Ivoire 78, Ecuador 55, Curacao 37 | Germany, Côte d'Ivoire |
| 7 | Spain 111, Uruguay 73, Saudi Arabia 67, Cape Verde 35 | Spain, Uruguay |
| 8 | United States 107, Türkiye 86, Paraguay 42, Australia 39 | United States, Türkiye |
| 9 | Argentina 101, Algeria 71, Austria 46, Jordan 12 | Argentina, Algeria |
| 10 | Japan 100, Netherlands 91, Sweden 56, Tunisia 24 | Japan, Netherlands |
| 11 | Bosnia and Herzegovina 84, Switzerland 82, Canada 56, Qatar 42 | Switzerland, Bosnia |
| 12 | Belgium 64, Iran 62, Egypt 55, New Zealand 55 | Belgium, Iran |
The groups that decide the tournament
The group of death is Czech Republic and Mexico. Their two squads scored 121 and 104 league goals respectively, the only group where two of the heavier-scoring sides were drawn together. Co-hosts Mexico open the entire tournament against South Africa on 11 June, but their qualification is far from routine. Korea Republic and South Africa have the least club-goal threat of the four.
Japan against the Netherlands is the other one to watch. Japan's squad (100) edged the Dutch (91) on club scoring this season, which is not a sentence anyone wrote four years ago, and it points to a genuinely tight top two rather than a Dutch stroll.
Group 11 is wide open. Bosnia (84) and Switzerland (82) are almost level, with no heavyweight to break it up, so co-hosts Canada (56) have a real opening to reach the knockouts on home soil.
Where the favourites sit
England top the entire field on squad scoring (158), built on Harry Kane, Ivan Toney and Ollie Watkins, and they meet Croatia on 17 June in the standout group game. Portugal (135) and France (129) head their groups comfortably. The numbers flatter neither Argentina nor Spain, who sit eighth and ninth on club goals, but both have the tournament pedigree and defensive quality this measure ignores, so do not read their mid-table scoring rank as a weakness.
For the full fixture list, live form and the data behind every team, the World Cup 2026 hub tracks the tournament as it unfolds, and our predictions pages run across every fixture worldwide. To check any squad's underlying numbers, the statistics and trends sections hold the league data these rankings are built from.
A 48-team World Cup forgives a slow start, so expect the favourites to come through even if they stumble early. The value, and the chaos, will be in the fight for second place and the eight best third-placed spots.
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FAQ
When does the 2026 World Cup group stage start?
The group stage runs from 11 June to 28 June 2026, across the United States, Canada and Mexico. The tournament opens with Mexico against South Africa on 11 June, and the final is on 19 July. This is the first 48-team World Cup, with 12 groups of four.
How does the 48-team group stage work?
The 48 teams are split into 12 groups of four. The top two from each group qualify automatically, and the eight best third-placed teams also go through, making a round of 32. That means a team can lose a group game and still progress, so the race for second and best-third places is where most of the drama sits.
Which is the group of death at the 2026 World Cup?
On squad scoring form, the group with Czech Republic and Mexico is the toughest, with two of the higher-scoring squads drawn together. The group containing Japan and the Netherlands is the next hardest, with little between them at the top.
How were these predictions made?
Each squad is ranked by the total league goals its called-up players scored in their own domestic top-flight this season, using FootyMetrics data across 115+ leagues. It is a measure of attacking form, not a probability model, and it favours squads whose players are in completed European seasons. Tournament pedigree and defence are not captured, so it is one input, not a forecast on its own.
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